Projection of the Default Rate for 2025

In accordance with Article 20 of Regulation (EU) 2020/1503 and Delegated Regulation (EU) 2115/2022, Fagura publishes the observed default rate for 2024 and the projection for 2025.

According to Delegated Regulation (EU) 2022/2115, a default situation occurs when:

  • It is unlikely that the project owner will fully repay or meet their obligations without recourse to actions such as enforcement of collateral;
  • The project owner has a delay of more than 90 days on a material credit obligation.

Out of 111 loans granted in 2024, 16 were in default (>90 days past due or unlikely to be paid), resulting in a 14.41% default rate, in line with Regulation (EU) 2115/2022. The projected 2024 default rate (10%) was exceeded due to Fagura’s first year of operations and the absence of CRC BNR data. Defaults were recorded in categories C, D, and F, while categories A, B, E, and G registered no defaults. Given the limited number of loans (111), the rate is reported on an aggregate basis, in accordance with Article 3(4) of Regulation 2115/2022.

Projection for 2025: Estimated at 13%, based on:
(i) the 2024 default rate,
(ii) the recalibrated risk scoring model (February 2025),
(iii) macroeconomic trends in Romania, including risks of increased taxes and duties, rising inflation, and political instability, which could significantly affect the repayment capacity of SMEs. The year 2025 is expected to be economically more challenging than 2024.

We estimate that point (ii) will significantly improve the quality of newly approved loans, while points (i) and (iii) will have a negative impact. Overall, we expect a slight improvement in the portfolio quality, with the default rate projected to fall below 6-8% in 2026.

Investing in crowdfunding projects involves risks, including the risk of partial or total loss of the invested funds. Your investment is not covered by deposit guarantee schemes established in accordance with the Directive 2014/49/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council. Also, your investment is not covered by investor compensation schemes established in accordance with the Directive 97/9/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council. Your investment may not generate any income. This is not a savings product and we advise you not to invest more than 10% of your net capital in crowdfunding projects. You may not be able to sell your investments when you want to. If you are able to sell them, you may still make a loss.

Your investment may not generate any income. This is not a savings product and we advise you not to invest more than 10% of your net capital in crowdfunding projects. You may not be able to sell the investment instruments when you want to. If you are able to sell them, you may still make a loss.